POLY4 has significant market potential and ability to reshape the fertilizer market. We continue to develop markets across the world, through our global sales and marketing programme, making the product widely available via established distribution channels.
The size of the market opportunity for POLY4 is framed in three key areas – as a substitute for existing products, to meet unmet market demand for high-value products and to provide premium performance.
POLY4 commercial development
Sirius Minerals has already signed major offtake agreements with leading commercial organisations in Southeast Asia, North America, Central America and China. The Company has secured take-or-pay offtake agreements totalling 4.4 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of POLY4 sales both into the fertilizer and animal feed markets. In addition, options within existing offtake agreements of 1.15 Mtpa bring the total to 5.5 Mtpa under these agreements, that are for between five to ten years.
The graph below displays various market opportunities for POLY4 globally.
* Demand forecast of primary substitute fertilizer products in 2025 by CRU expressed in POLY4 equivalent
POLY4’s unique multi-nutrient content enables a wide range of opportunities for existing fertilizer products substitution. In addition, the demand for multi-nutrient fertilizers continues to grow at the farm gate.
According to analysis by industry specialists the contestable market opportunity for POLY4 as a substitute for existing products will be 376 Mtpa in 2018, far more than the project's 20 Mtpa full production capacity.
Unmet market demand
The farming community increasingly acknowledges the need of balanced fertilization. There is also a significant unmet demand for chloride-free sulphur: 32% of total sulphur consumption is used on chlorine-sensitive crops while supply of chlorine-free sulphur is only 9%.
According to analysis by industry specialists, the increasing demand for key attributes of POLY4, such as its suitability for use on chloride sensitive crops and its ability to address sulphur and magnesium soil deficiencies, accounts for a total 130 Mtpa of POLY4 demand potential.
POLY4 is a premium product: it increases yield on broad-acre and high-value crops, improves crop quality and health and soil structure.
Demand for multi-nutrient fertilizers continues to grow and as the performance of POLY4 becomes more widely validated, it is expected that so will its ability to attract a premium.